WashingtonPreps.com - 1A Playoff Predictions And Analysis

November 5, 2009

Jonathan Cragle
Special to WashingtonPreps.com

This time of year is busy. Very busy. With this in mind we have added some guest analysts who follow Washington State High School Football religiously. Their views and opinions are their own. They do not represent the washingtonpreps.com editors opinions necessarily. Having said that we appreciate the time and effort that is put into this type of work and think that all of our fans will enjoy the analysis. Perhaps it will be the start of some good discussion! Here is the 1A breakdown of the games starting here in a few hours through the weekend. We want to thank Johnathan Cragle for his work on this. Best of luck to all of these great teams!

District 1 Subdistrict Previews
By Jonathan Cragle

Thursday, November 5

Teams: Lynden Christian (NW #3) at Nooksack Valley (NW #1)

Time & Location: 7:00pm kickoff at Nooksack Valley High School

Nooksack Valley: Comes into the game as the #1 seed after tying with Meridian for the conference title, but winning the "coin-flip" at the beginning of the season. In nine games the Nooksack Valley has outscored their opponents 326 to 129, including two meetings with Lynden Christian, where they outscored the Lyncs by a 100 to 44 margin. Nooksack is led by the arm and legs of QB Tyler Perry, who has rushed 114 times for 723yds (6.3/avg) and 13 TDs, as well as throwing 102 of 173 for 1294 yards and 9 TDs. He throws to a plethora of receivers who are led by senior Anthony Reese (35 catches for 503 yards and 4 TDs). The Pioneers defense has 20 sacks and 13 interceptions this season, five that have been returned for TDs.

Lynden Christian: The Lyncs are led by senior QB Daniel Ten Broek (70 of 156 for 930 yards and 12 TDs) and a pair of big receivers in Jacob Knibbe (30 catches for 459 yards and 6 TDs) and Jordan Beld. The Lyncs are paced on the ground by Derek Feddema (109 rushes for 398 yards and 5 TDs). Two of the Lync's wins came against Friday Harbor in down-to-the-wire fashion. The Lyncs have been outscored 133 to 271 in nine games so far.

Keys to game: Lynden Christian cannot turn over the ball and must have sustained drives that eat up the clock to try to keep the potent Pioneers attack off the field. Unfortunately, the Pioneers only needed 13 minutes of possession to score 55 points in the first meeting and 22 minutes to score 45 points in the second meeting. The Pioneers need to defend the "jump ball" passes that the Lyncs will try to throw to their big receivers.

Projection: Lynden Christian will come out battling, but unless the Pioneers make self-inflicted mistakes, the speed and experience of the Pioneers will win out. The only chance the Lyncs have is if the Pioneers turn the ball over more than four times and even that might not be enough. Nooksack Valley wins this game with a total team effort 41-14.

Teams: Meridian (NW #2) at Coupeville (CC #2)

Time & Location: 7:00pm kickoff at Coupeville High School

Meridian: Meridian comes into the game fresh off a 26-22 win over Nooksack Valley, their first in the past two years, which should boost their confidence even more. In that game WR Mitchell trip had 150+ yards receiving and three TDs, while Zach Slesk, nursing a stress fracture in his ankle threw for 298 yards and 4 TDs. The Trojans have a "bend don't break" defense that is opportunistic, getting interceptions from a variety of players. Give the Trojans another six point advantage with Coach Bob Ames at the helm. Expect the Trojans to throw the ball early and often in this game, which should minimize the amount of time that Zach Slesk has to run. Don't get caught up in Meridian's record, since they've played one of the toughest schedules in the 1A ranks this year, including Nooksack Valley, top-ranked New Westminister B.C., Orting and Squalicum.

Coupeville: The Wolves struggled in the tough Nisqually this year, scoring only 129 points, while giving up 205 points. The Wolves are led by QB Jason Bagby (87 of 171 for 1094 and 7 TDs) and RB Justin Adams (125 rushes for 774yds, 5TDs), both of whom were new starters at the beginning of the season. The defense has seven sacks and seven interceptions on the season. The Wolves lost 45-13 to King's, who boasts a similar attack as Meridian, with a running quarterback who can throw. The Wolves will need to play a complete game to have a chance.

Keys to game: No turnovers for Coupeville, while forcing Meridian into turnovers. Coupeville has to find a way to get to the QB, while not leaving themselves vulnerable for quick-hit passes. Expect Meridian to throw early and often and try to put the game away early and get Slesk the rest he'll need for the next game.

Projection: Meridian should win this game from the outset and will only give up scores if they lose their concentration like they did at the end of the Nooksack Valley game. Expect Meridian's offense to score often and force Coupeville into passing the ball more than they prefer, which will give even more opportunities for turnovers. Meridian wins this game 38-7.

Teams: Friday Harbor (NW #4) at Kings H.S. (CC #1)

Time & Location: 5:00pm kickoff at Kings High School

Friday Harbor: The Wolverines are a hard-hitting team whose record betrays its talent. They had to face two of the states Top-10 programs (Nooksack Valley and Meridian) twice each and also lost final-second games to Lynden Christian. The Wolverines are led by the arm of QB Taylor Buck and the legs of running back Roy Taylor and wide receiver Michael Ausilio. After facing high-powered offenses and running Qbs from Nooksack and Meridian, the Wolverines will have a game-plan against the King's Knights. Expect Friday Harbor to try to hit the Knights hard on every play, perhaps even picking up a few penalties along the way with their aggressiveness.

Kings: The Knights (6-3 overall) are the CC #1 on virtue of their win over Coupeville early in the season. They are facing the NW4 team due to a previous agreement that they would get the chance for the automatic bid to state every third year. The Knights are led by the arm and legs of junior QB Thomas Vincent, who through nine games has completed 90 of 169 for 1942 yards and 28 TDs, while rushing 154 times for 1306 yards and 14 TDs. Vincent's favorite targets are Nick Swanson and Curtis Clauson, both whom have 800+ yards receiving this season.

Keys to game: Friday Harbor will need to win the turnover battle and needs to have sustained drives that keep the Knights offense on the sidelines. Friday Harbor needs to limit Vincent's rushing, which sets up the long passes. Kings needs to protect Vincent from taking hard hits throughout the game and try to jump out to an early lead. If Kings can get that early lead it will be difficult for Friday Harbor to come back.

Projection: In front of their home fans, expect Kings to try to go for the home-run throws early with their speedy receivers, Curtis Clauson and Nick Swanson. Friday Harbor should be able to weather the storm and keep the game close, if they don't turn the ball over or make careless mistakes. In the end though, Kings will wear the Wolverines down and win the game by a few TDs. Kings wins this game 27-14.

SCAC Crossovers (District 5)
(Four state berths)

East No. 4 Wahluke at West No. 1 Zillah

Wahluke - Won their final two regular season games, but were still outscored by their opponents 148 to 231. The only common opponent they and Zillah have was Royal, a team that Wahluke lost to 61-0 and Zillah beat 34-31. Over half of Wahluke's "points for" came in their final two games against teams that had a combined 5-13 record. Every team has a chance, but Wahluke will have to play a perfect game to see that chance turn into a win and even that might not be enough.

Zillah - Is riding one of the biggest waves of confidence in the 1A ranks, since their week 4 win over Royal. They're still playing with a chip on their shoulders from feeling disrespected, which could be bad for Wahluke. Expect Zillah to take it to Wahluke in all phases of the game from the opening kickoff. If Zillah plays their game then Wahluke's season will be over quickly.

Prediction - Expect Zillah to continue its winning ways with a 41-7 win to move on to state.

East No. 3 River View at West No. 2 Naches Valley

River View - 7-2 record includes outscoring opponents 306 to 198. Their losses came to #1 Connell and a 42-35 loss to Royal, where they held the lead until the final seconds of the game. Have scored 34+ points in seven of their games. The Panthers are led by QB Matt Wilhelm (120 of 198 for 1903 yards and 23 TDs) and running back Chance Watt 127 rushes for 762 yards and 10 TDs. Wilhelm's favorite target is Brendan Hoch who has 942 yards, including 110+ yards receiving in each of the last three games. RiverView needs to stop Lukehart and make Naches Valley pass more than they'd prefer.

Naches Valley - Comes into game with a 6-3 record where they outscored opponents 221-169. The Rangers bounced back from two opening season losses to Royal and Orting, by reeling off six straight wins, before falling to Zillah in the final game. The Rangers, led by running back Nicholas Lukehart (206 rushes for 1078 yards and 15 TDs) the Rangers look to overwhelm teams on the ground. The Rangers struggled to contain the rushing attack of Zillah in the final game. They'll need to find a way to contain River View's rushing attack, while limiting open looks for passes.

Prediction - This could come down to which team has the ball last. If Naches Valley can finish drives that they couldn't in the Zillah game then they should win, but if not then RiverView will pull away. RiverView wins this game 26-14, by keeping Naches Valley's defense on its toes and Lukehart and the offense off the field.

West No. 3 Goldendale at East No. 2 Royal

Goldendale - Was riding a good streak of wins and confidence early in the season, but fell off with losses to Naches Valley and Zillah. The Timberwolves have outscored opponents 285-157 during their 7-2 season so far. Goldendale's regular season would be forgotten with a win over playoff perennial, Royal. It won't be easy, but minimizing mistakes while capitalizing on opportunities is what helped Zillah overcome the Knights in week4. That will be the recipe Goldendale needs for a chance in this game.

Royal - The Knights lost a lot of their early season luster after losses to Connell & Zillah and in needing a "come-from-behind" win over RiverView. The Knights 7-2, have outscored their opponents 350 to 147. It's a new team of players that have taken over this year, so there will be ups-and-downs, but they've found ways to score a lot of points, going over 40+ points in five of their games. Unfortunately, the downs are accentuated during playoff time. A full game of sustained execution will be the first step in a tough journey to the "Dome". It starts with a win over Goldendale.

Prediction - Goldendale puts up a might fight, but the home field advantage helps the Knights get the bit of energy they need to pull out the win. Royals wins 27-20

West No. 4 Cle Elum/Roslyn at East No. 1 Connell

Connell - The Eagles made it through unscathed in arguably the toughest schedule in the 1A ranks this year. Nothing short of a Golden Ball will be good enough, especially now that they're considered the favorites. The Eagles haven't been challenged much this year, so they'll need to ensure they're doing all the fundamentals correctly on both sides of the ball, as they'll face some tough teams over the next few weeks that will be gunning to put THE blemish on Connells record.

Cle Elum/Roslyn - They fought to make it to the crossovers, and their reward is facing the top-ranked 1A team in the first round of crossovers. Mistakes will cost points, so Cle Elum can't have any. Even if they don't make any mistakes the speed and aggressiveness of the Eagles will be too much for them to match.

Prediction - Connell is simply too fast and strong for Cle Elum. Still Cle Elum can use this as an opportunity to compete against an elite program and use it as motivation for next year. The Eagles win this one 45-10.

If East No. 1 Connell and West No. 1 Zillah both win, Zillah receives the overall No. 1 seed.

Caribou Trail-Northeast Crossovers
(Four state berths)

Crossover Games
Friday, Nov. 6
Game 1: CTL No. 5 Chelan vs. CTL No. 1 Cashmere, winner is District 6 No. 1

Chelan - A year later finds the Goats with less wins and trying to get that quality win still. The goats have outscored opponents by 164-148 margin, but have struggled against most of their opponents, including losing to Cashmere in their last game 31-13. Chelan has relied on a rush-by-committee approach this year with seven players notching 22 carries or more, led by Matt Petersen (72 for 380 yards & 9 TDs) and Cole Schwartz (55 for 274 yards & 9 TDs). The Goats don't pass much, only have a combined 75 attempts between three different QBs. Mistake-free play and some breaks are needed, then anything is possible.

Cashmere - Cashmere has quietly gone about putting together a quality season, just a year after losing a heavy senior class. Without the fanfare of many of the other top teams the Bulldogs have reeled off seven straight wins after an opening season loss to Connell. Cashmere has outscored their opponents 310 to 59, including three games with 49 or more points. Even more impressive is the defense, which has two shutouts and three other games of holding opponents under 7 points! Expect to hear the names Tyler McNair, Moe Roberts and Christian O'Neal again during this game like the first meeting between Cashmere & Chelan about a week ago.

Prediction - Chelan tried to control the ball and the clock in the first meeting and they still were outscored by a large margin. Blocked punts and defensive stops seem to the order of the day again for Cashmere. Cashmere wins with a more focused effort 38-7.

Saturday, Nov. 7
Game 2: CTL No. 4 Okanogan vs. NEA No. 1 Chewelah, winner is District 7 No. 1

Okonogan - (6-2) turned in a gritty performance in a win against Cascasde (Leavenworth) 14-12 in the final game of the regular season and while it didn't change the standings or seeding, it could do wonders from the Okonogan football team's confidence. The Bulldogs have outscored their opponents 247-141.

Chewelah - (5-4) has outscored their opponents 244-161, but this while facing opponents, whom have a combined 28-41record. None of that matters, since one win send them into the state playoffs. They'll need a good effort on both sides of the ball and minimize their mistakes to have a chance.

Prediction: This one is so close it's almost too difficult to choose a winner, but we'll give the node to Okonogan only on the basis playing a tougher schedule. Okonogan wins 27-21 to move on.

Game 3: CTL No. 2 Leavenworth Cascade vs. NEA No. 3 Kettle Falls, winner is District 6 No. 2

Cascade - (6-2) turned in a gritty performance in a win against Cascasde (Leavenworth) 14-12 in the final game of the regular season and while it didn't change the standings or seeding, it could do wonders from the Okonogan football team's confidence. The Bulldogs have outscored their opponents 247-141.

Kettle Falls - (5-4) has outscored their opponents 244-161, but this while facing opponents, whom have a combined 28-41record. None of that matters, since one win send them into the state playoffs. They gained confidence in surviving the three-team mini-playoff to get to this game. They'll need a good effort on both sides of the ball and minimize their mistakes to have a chance.

Prediction: This one is so close it's almost too difficult to choose a winner, but we'll give the node to Okonogan only on the basis playing a tougher schedule. Okonogan wins 27-21 to move on.

Game 4: CTL No. 3 Omak vs. NEA No. 2 Freeman is District 7 No. 2

Omak - (5-3) Has outscored opponents 218-111. The Pioneers finished regular season with four straight wins, while scoring 40+ points in three of them. Omak has two defensive shutouts and two games holding teams to 7 points. They challenged Royal and Cascade (Leavenworth) in opening season losses and that can carry over to the playoffs.

Freeman - (2-5) has been outscored by their opponents 128-175 and most of their "points for" came in two big wins over teams with losing records. Freeman can take confidence from surviving the three-team mini-playoff to get to this game. They have nothing to lose and should open up the playbook. Anything is possible in the playoffs.

Prediction: It's tough to argue against Omak winning this game, since they've played the tougher schedule, scored more points and have held teams to less points. This would be a "David over Goliath" win for Freeman, but Omak wins in the end 38-7.

District 4
(Four state berths)

Game 1: Evergreen No. 1 Montesano vs. Trico No. 1 LaCenter, winner is District 4 No. 1, loser No. 2 seed

Montesano - Montesano's averaging 48 points a game and their "points against" of 7 points is the best in the state in all classifications. All of that is forgotten now that the playoffs are starting. They will face the best competition each week and they'll need to execute for a full 48 minutes to reach their ultimate goal of a "Golden Ball". Riding the arm of QB Josh Tyler and the legs of returning running back Ryan Campbell, the Bulldogs will try to stifle LaCenter's offense, while running behind the precision blocking of their offensive line.

LaCenter - The Wildcats are coming off a one-point loss to Kalama in the final game of the regular season, but nothing would serve notice to the rest of the 1A ranks than to shock the Bulldogs. LaCenter has nothing to lose, since they can do no worse than the #2 seed, so they should open up the playbook and try to keep the Bulldogs off-balance and their offense off the field. That's easier said than done, but sustained drives that eat up the clock could be a great strategy. To win the Wildcats will need to score on 70% or more of their drives.

Prediction - LaCenter will still go to state as the #2 seed, but the Bulldogs win this one 45-13, after a lead going into halftime and then pull away in the second half.

Game 2: Trico No. 2 Castle Rock (6-3) vs. Evergreen No. 3 Toledo, winner is District 4 No. 3 seed

Castle Rock (6-3) comes into this game having won four of their last five games, with a final game loss to LaCenter their only stumble during that time. The other two losses were to 2B top-ranked Adna and to #2 ranked Montesano. The Rockets have outscored their opponents by 275 to 220 and have tough running attack that can wear defenses down. Castle Rock struggled in their last game against a smaller, quicker LaCenter team that blocked efficiently opening up running lanes that led to 400+ rushing yards. The Rockets must play with abandon and energy or they could struggle again against Toledo.

Toledo - Finished regular season (7-2) and outscored opponents 187 to 139. Season could have been different with win over Onalaska three weeks prior, but can punch their ticket with a win over the Rockets. The Indians had three interceptions, two of which were ran back for touchdowns by DJ Herbert, from 43 yards and 87 yards, in their romp over Rochester in week 9. The defense held a potent Rochester rushing attack to 160 yards below their average that they'd had the previous three weeks.

Prediction - In common opponent matchups both teams beat Rochester, beat Stevenson, and lost to Montesano, all by virtually the same scores. Castle Rock has scored more points offensively, but also given up a lot more points on defense than Toledo. Even the win/loss record of the opponents of each team, when added up are within 3 of each other. Ultimately, this will come down to the team that wins the turnover battle AND could be decided on the final play. Castle Rock wins a nail-biter 21-20.

Game 3: Evergreen No. 2 Onalaska vs. Trico No. 3 Kalama, winner is District 4 No. 4 seed

Onalaska - The Loggers are led by junior QB Dalton Ritchey who had run and thrown his way into the nightmares of many teams, except for the one loss against Montesano. Expect the Loggers to ride Ritchey as far as they can into the playoffs. After a great regular season turnaround from last year the Loggers will want to go far into the playoffs and that starts with taking care of Kalama.

Kalama - Kalama finished strong winning their last two games, including a surprising win over LaCenter 41-40. The Chinooks have been outscored 238 to 250 during the regular season, but during the final two games they averaged 30 points per game. Expect the confidence they gained in the win over LaCenter to carry over to this game. They'll need to contain explosive QB Dalton Ritchey and continue the offensive explosion they found in the LaCenter game.

Prediction - Onalaska will win this on Ritchey's legs, but only if they can give him time to run. Onalaska wins a tight game, 28-21.

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